All posts by admin

“A blue planet” – In: The Ocean revealed

A blue planet, by Catherine Jeandel and Pascale Delecluse (book p.22f)

Post: 20 June 2018 

Natural, an overview over the global ocean, which covers almost three-quarter of its surface, needs an early place in a book with 133 chapters and 323 pages.  The authors got the place. They raise some principle facts, including that the oceans hold a huge volume of salt water: 1.4 billion cubic meters! Its average temperature is just 2 °C. The coldest temperatures are negative, because the salt in seawater means that it does not freeze until it reaches –1.9 °C.

If science talks about climate, they talk about average weather in the atmosphere. That

raises immediately a principle point missing in the essay, namely that the ration between water in the air and the ocean is 1:1000, and the annual temperature difference about 15° Celsius. The sun merely heats a very thin layer of the sea surface (see images). Only a small amount of freezing cold deep-water replacing surface water, could trigger a period of low air temperatures, as for example from 1940 to the mid-.1970th, presumably due to naval warfare in WWII (see last image).

Outstanding question: what sets the depth of the thermocline?

Due to the fact that cold water will be denser than warm water, and salty water will be denser than less salty water, the ocean structure from top to its maximum depth of 11’020 meter, from the human perspective, seems fairly stable, but any force pushing deep water to the surface, would change the situation dramatically. The authors neglect this point. They neither raise the possible influence by man’s activities at sea that pushes sun-warmed surface water down to lower sea levels. These activities may have significantly contributed to global warming since the end of the Little Ice Age around 1850.

Beside from mentioning “the ballet of the currents”, meaning the global ocean current system, within which the water takes 1000 years to complete on full lap, their major concern is the impact of carbon dioxide (CO2). To them not the oceans-make-climate, instead “the ocean also plays a role in regulating carbon dioxide in the atmosphere” (p. 23).

The authors explanation goes at is follows:
__ On average, human activities emit 10 gigatonnes of CO2   per year. A third of this additional gas penetrates into the ocean, is absorbed in the surface layers and therefore upsets the natural balances.
­__
Two balances are affected: the physico-chemical and biological CO2 pump, and the energy exchange between the air and the water, since the ocean absorbs 90% of global warming.
__Climatologists are therefore fully justified in worrying about this slow accumulation of changes in our ‘blue planet’. (page 23)

By this a gross limitation of the relevance of the sea in climate change matters to the carbon-dioxide issue, they lack any imagination of how the Blue Planet works. The planet is not only blue but extreme cold, where the lifeline of man is bound to an extreme thin sea surface layer, which can be changed by natural events, but also by numerous human activities at sea. Science foremost task would be to understand how much man has already induced changes in the ocean system and subsequently altered weather pattern and climate. The principle reference to CO2 is by far too little to be concerned of, which is to prevent the Blue Planet from anthropogenic global warming (AGW) and climate changes.

The Ocean revealed  : http://horizon.documentation.ird.fr/exl-doc/pleins_textes/divers17-11/010071612.pdf

Fred Singer asserts: Sea-level rise is a riddle and a puzzle – Don’t accept it!

Understand the human contribution to sea level rise

Post: 22 May 2018

True but not acceptable if Prof. Fred Singer asserts: The sea is rising, but not because of Climate Change, and there is nothing we can do about it, except to build dikes and sea walls a little bit higher. In his recent WSJ essay (15 May 2018), also HERE and HERE, he writes:

Of all known and imagined consequences of climate change, many people fear sea-level rise most. But efforts to determine what causes seas to rise are marred by poor data and disagreements about methodology. The noted oceanographer Walter Munk referred to sea-level rise as an “enigma”; it has also been called a riddle and a puzzle.

The message is: Whatever cause any ocean rise man has to except that as he has little chance to stop or reverse the trend. So far so good. The oceans are huge, too big to control, or to manage. Therefor it is easy to agree with Prof. Singer that presumable nothing can be done about a rising sea. But while is it unacceptable? We do not know the oceanic warming mechanism in detail. It is too much a “riddle and a puzzle” to be sure that human activities at seas do not contribute, and whether that can be minimized or avoided.

Singer is a trained atmospheric physicist. Born 1924 he is known for his work in space research, atmospheric pollution, rocket and satellite technology. Most significantly he argues there is neither  evidence that global warming is attributable to human-caused increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide, and that climate models are neither based on reality nor evidence. His booklet “Hot Talk Cold Science – Global Warming’s unfinished Debate” ; Oakland 1998,  explains his view in details. It is worth reading and his stance made him to one of the most eminent so-called: climate skeptics. He deserves it.

But what is wrong about his notion: ”there is nothing we can do about rising sea”? Throughout his long research career and extensive publication, the oceans have received little attention, although they may have provided an answer to questions he and others raised. Here is one example Singer raised frequently (e.g. HERE) that long overdue to be explained:

For example, the data show that the climate warmed between 1900 and 1940, long before humanity used much energy. But then the climate cooled between 1940 and 1975.

Indeed at about 1918 started an extreme warming trend, and very surprising cooling trend in 1940. The first date is closely related to the First World War, and the later date to the commencement of the 2. World War on 1st September 1939. In both cases huge activities at sea took place. During the 1st WW naval warfare was close to Europe and a sudden shift in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic Sea started a warming of the Northern Hemisphere until 1939. During the 2nd WW naval activities at first close to Europe’ shores became eventually a global matter. In both cases the ocean relevance to climatic shifts was eminent.  This blog offers a number of posts for more information, and access to the PDF version of the ‘Booklet on Naval War changes Climate’

For more than 150 years merchant ships and fishing vessels change the structure of sea surface water temperatures down to 10 meter depth. All told that may result in 100’000’000 kilometer across the oceans every day. That moves more heat in than out. Ignoring this aspect when discussing sea level rise is little convincing.
                            MORE at OCEANS-GOVERN-CLIMATE.

Regarding the sea as enigma is of little help, and completely unacceptable to render to sea level rise, at least not so long as any human contribution can be defiantly be excluded.

Arctic Warming 100 years ago – Due to Naval War in Europe 1914-1918

 All war-churned water flow to the Arctic –
A proof how human has made climate!

Post: 14th April 2018 – Reference: http://www.arctic-heats-up.com/

Washington Post reported on 2 November 1922 based on information relayed by the American consul in Norway to the U.S. State Department in October 1922 and published in the Monthly Weather Review  ( Fig. left),  with the sensational hint that in 1918 a strong warming began – see last paragraph of extract (Fig. right and below):

In August, 1922, the Norwegian Department of Commerce sent an expedition to Spitzbergen and Bear Island under the leadership of Dr. Adolf Hoel, lecturer on geology at the University of Christiania. Its purpose was to survey and chart the lands adjacent to the Norwegian mines on those islands, take soundings of the adjacent waters, and make other oceanographic investigations.

Ice conditions were exceptional. In fact, so little ice has never before been noted. The expedition all but established a record, sailing as far north as 81° 29′ in ice-free water. This is the farthest north ever reached with modern oceanographic apparatus.

The character of the waters of the great polar basin has heretofore been practically unknown. Dr. Hoel reports that he made a section of the Gulf Stream at 81° north latitude and took soundings to a depth of 3,100 meters. These show the Gulf Stream very warm, and it could be traced as a surface current till beyond the 81st parallel. The warmth of the waters makes it probable that the favorable ice conditions will continue for some time.

In connection with Dr. Hoel’s report, it is of interest to note the unusually warm summer in Arctic Norway and the observations of Capt. Martin Ingebrigsten, who has sailed the eastern Arctic for 54 years past. He says that he first noted warmer conditions in 1918, that since that time it has steadily gotten warmer, and that to-day the Arctic of that region is not recognizable as the same region of 1868 to 1917.

SOURCE: Associated Press.   “Arctic Ocean Getting Warm; Seals Vanish and Icebergs Melt.”  
                                                  The Washington Post.   2 November 1922   (p. 2).

A detailed analysis can be read in the book (p.60), “ARCTIC HEATS UP – Spitsbergen 1919-1939” of which an excerpt is given as it follows:

  1. Spitsbergen as a Heating Spot

If one asks whether the heating-up spot is to be found at Spitsbergen, we would answer: yes. The information supplied sustain this affirmative answer. Nothing demonstrates this better than the data record taken at Spitsbergen since 1912. If one reviews the January/February temperature difference between the winters of 1913/14 and of 1919/20 (ca. + 15oC), or from the winters of 1916-1917 to the winters of 1919-1920 (ca. + 22oC), the results are not only extraordinary, but they reveal that the “shift” took place in 1918, respectively in the winter of 1918/19 (Hesselberg, 1956). This is emphasized by the comparison between the data recorded from 1912, until WWI ended in November 1918 (ca. – 4.3oC), and thereafter (ca. +3.8oC), including the winter of 1925/26.

In the summer of 1918 the seawater temperatures had already reached unusual values: +7oC to +8oC at the West coast of Spitsbergen (Weikmann, 1942). During the winter of 1918/19 the temperatures varied considerably. There were long periods in November and December 1918 with temperatures close to zero degrees, 4 days with temperatures above zero in November and 7 days in December[38]. In January 1919, the temperatures did not reach -5oC for 14 days, and five days were frost-free. The annual mean (1912-1926) with minus 7.7oC suddenly jumped to an annual average of minus 5.4oC in 1919, representing a plus of 2.3 degree. The corresponding figures provide for January a difference + 8.6oC, which indicates that the sea was able to transfer a lot of heat into the air. However, during February-April 1919, the temperatures were well below the average (ca. -6oC), with a large ice-cover far out into the sea. But that did not affect the significant warming that had started a few months earlier.

CONCLUSION:

Exactly 100 years ago the sea water temperatures at Spitsbergen suddenly reached unusual high values. The connection to the naval war activities in the North Sea and Eastern North Atlantic is obvious. The warming increased over the next two decades and lasted until 1939 until World War II commenced. Two world wars changed climate, but science is neither able nor willing to raise the issue.

 

2nd cold snap in Europe mid-March 2018

Europe gets a cold spring due to churning the sea

[Addendum 1st April 2018 + 4 Fig. ]

This post was about the presumed human impact on sea temperature condition in the North Sea and Baltic (below – 17.March). The status by the end of March indicates a serious connection. Shipping, fishery and off-shore windfarms should not be ignored when looking for reasons causing the late winter conditions as reported (Bloomberg):

“The chilly weather that has plagued much of Europe this month will continue into the start of April, but over time will ease,” said Tyler Roys, a meteorologist at AccuWeather Inc. “By the end of the month it seems temperatures will become more seasonable for the northern third of Europe.”

The biggest deviations from normal will be the U.K. and Scandinavia, particularly southern Norway, while warmer conditions are expected in the Balkans and Turkey, according to Rebecca Fuller, a meteorologist at Radiant Solutions.

The temperature in Norway is seen at 1.8 Celsius (35 Fahrenheit) next week, compared with a 10-year average of 3.6 Celsius according to Weather Co.

Seasonal sea ice in the Baltic remained substantial below average. The peak was around the 10th March 2018, and is far away from the mean by the end of March (see the two ice charts). The DMI-SST Anomaly charts indicated for some time sub-sea-surface temperature from Bornholm to Scotland, consistent until today (see Fig). It seems time to take the human impact on sea water condition in Northern Europe serious.

[Addendum 24th March 2018 with 4 Figures]:

EUROPE Weather at Eastern – 1st April 2018 ff;  

More cold snaps approach from Siberia to mark the third and fourth return of the Beast from the East throughout Northern Europe up to the Atlantic. (HERE & HERE)  The serious contribution by all kind of ocean uses, shipping, offshore windfarms, fishery and so on is nowhere discussed or mentioned. See for example the Fig. about SST (sea surface temperature) in the North Sea and Western Baltic. Otherwise the Atlantic-SST are above average (see Fig.) What do offshore wind farms contribute the weather situation in April? A convincing answer would be a big bon for understanding climate, and how effective human activities at sea are to contribute to weather making and climate change.

 

FIRST POST  –  Posted: 17th  March 2018

Cold Siberian air arrive again. Only three weeks ago our post “Coldest spring weather since 2010 expected” discussed the sudden cold snap in Europe, because it is highly possible that human activities at sea, contribute to unexpected low temperatures influx from the Far-East. The explanation is simple: As soon as the reginal seas across Europe have lost too much of their heat stored during the summer season, cold air from Siberian can reach Europe and establish reign for days or weeks, respectively delay the arrival of spring. 

The last few days weather development support the thesis. Europe’s spring, respectively the months April, May and June are likely to show sub-temperature, as indicated in Fig. 1. Already forthcoming April the forecast indicates a significant negative anomaly (Fig. 2), with the North Sea and Baltics in focus. Why does it happen exactly in the regions? The explanation presumably stems from the various anthropogenic activities at sea. Lengthy discussed HERE. 

We now briefly record the current cold snap, as mentioned by weather.com (15/17 March 2018, shortened):

The Cold’s Arrival – The 2nd Beast from the East.

Temperature drops of 10 degrees Celsius can be expected as the cold air arrives Friday into the weekend. “Sunday will be the coldest day with maximum temperatures struggling to lift above freezing across the U.K., Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, northern France and southern Scandinavia.” Wind chill values may dip as low as minus 10 degrees Celsius – equivalent to the mid-teens Fahrenheit. 

With cold air blowing over the North Sea and an upper-level pocket of cold air, areas of snow showers and squalls are once again a likelihood to the U.K, Ireland, northern France and southern Scandinavia this weekend.

Difference from the cold snap three weeks ago.

The cold air will work its way south and west into most of the rest of Europe later in the weekend (17/18 March). It is in this part of Europe where the cold will persist the longest well into the week of March 19-23. This pattern will also generate areas of snow that will persist through much of that week in southern, central and eastern Europe. Some of that snow will be moderate to heavy, not simply in the Alps, but also from parts of Germany and Poland to the Ukraine.

The phrase “Beast from the East” refers to the fact this cold air arrives on strong winds blowing east-to-west from Scandinavia over the North Sea into the British Isles and western Europe.

Further Figures; (left) Condition today (17 March); Jetstrea- – 17 March 2018; (right) Forecast 24th March 2018

 

Coldest spring weather since 2010 expected

Europe’s late winter – A case off-shore
 activities contributed.

Posted: 26th February 2018

Coldest spring weather since 2010 expected before first week of March, shouts out of the news media. Read what is at stake (below), but keep in mind that the current winter in Northern Europe had been extremely mild, to which shipping and the huge off-shore windfarms in the North- and Baltic Sea may have considerably contributed. The matter was thoroughly discussed in a paper-2016, and for example HERE-PDF. Any coffee stirred for too long gets cold. As soon as the reginal seas across Europe have lost too much of their heat stored during the summer season, cold air from Siberian can reach Europe and establish reign for days or weeks, respectively delay the arrival of spring.  Continue with recent post

According the current forecast the cold spell shall only last until early March. WE will make up-dates if the predictions proves wrong.

Excerpts from the news-press

(E.g.; Source: www.connexionfrance.com; www.euronews.com, www.ndtv.com, etc)

Intensely cold winds coming to Europe from Siberia. The blast of cold weather that has hit the country is expected to intensify tomorrow and into next week, with temperatures feeling as low as -18°C, alongside wind gusts of up to 80 kph. Dubbed the “Moscow-Paris” phenomenon, the “cold wave” is the result of intensely cold winds coming to Europe from Siberia. It is expected to settle over France from today, and into next week (February 25 to March 4). Most of Western Europe will be affected by temperatures of -6°C to -10°C from Monday to Wednesday. And even Mediterranean areas will feel the chill, with temperatures of between 0°C and -4°C.

Why is it unusually cold in certain parts of Europe? High pressure over the North Sea heading northeast into Scandinavia is responsible for the cold wave, according to Bowles. The meteorologist explained that the high pressure was drawing cold air from Siberia and pushing it southwest, “much further south and west than it usually does.” That’s how very cold air is reaching parts of Germany, France, and the UK. The longer this pattern lingers, the colder it will get, added Bowles. For the meteorologist, this kind of weather phenomenon is “unusual but not record-breaking”.

Siberian express’ ;  Britain’s weather service, the Met Office, forecast that northern England would have 10 centimetres (four inches) of snow over the next three days, amid temperatures that could feel as cold as minus 15 Celsius. It also warned of widespread travel disruption, saying: “Snow showers, already affecting eastern parts of England early on Monday, are expected to become more persistent and more widespread through Monday afternoon and evening.”  Russia itself was not spared, with its meteorological service warning of “abnormally cold” temperatures until Wednesday and temperatures in the Moscow region expected to fall to minus 24 Celsius on Sunday night, and minus 35 Celsius in the centre of the country. Frigid temperatures are also forecast throughout Germany, with a low of minus 22 Celsius in some Alpine valleys in the southern state of Bavaria on Monday.

Cold snap sees Arctic warmer than Europe  Warmth was coming into the Arctic both up from the Atlantic and through the Bering Strait, driving and cold air south. Around the entire Arctic region, temperatures are now about 20C above normal, at minus 8C, according to DMI calculations. To the south, a rare snow storm hit Rome on Monday

Reporting on winter 1939/40 by The New York Times

Reporting on weather/climate changes then and today.

Post 06 February 2018 by Dr. Arnd Bernaerts

About reporting weather news The New York Times (NYT) is unbeatable, at least in some cases. Nowadays it is about global climate change. Consider for example the recent paper concerning: “Climate Change Is Complex. We’ve Got Answers to Your Questions”, by JUSTIN GILLIS Illustrations by JON HAN (Q&A, 2016). Or remember the blog:  NYT- Dot Earth, excellently run by Andrew C. Revkin for nine years until 2016. All texts show a great commitment, thoroughness, and the willingness to get it right. The claim is (Q&A Part 1, No 5): “The warming is extremely rapid on the geologic time scale, and no other factor can explain it as well as human emissions of greenhouse gases.”  Whether that this assessment eventually hold the ground is still subject of debate. When considering another NYT reporting period on exceptional extreme weather situations, doubts are eminent that “human emissions of greenhouse gases” does not cover the climate change debate sufficiently.

The NYT received the Pulitzer Prize 1941 concerning its foreign news report. Indeed the in-depth coverage of war activities and weather condition since September 1939 is outstanding. The amount of information is breath taking. That includes weather, which was at numerous location never observe or a record over a 200 years period.

After an extreme unusual December 1939, a record cold January 1940 followed (see HERE & HERE) It was not the end of unusual frost and snowfall. Europe remained governed by General Frost during the following month February, as illustrated by Fig. 2,4,5,6,8,9, and a few examples selected from NYT reports:

__ February 13; Amsterdam . Europe suffered tonight in the paralyzing grip of the bitterest cold in more than 100 years. (NYT, Feb. 14, 1940)
__ February 13; Copenhagen . The temperature has dropped to 13 degrees below zero Fahrenheit (-25°C). (NYT, Feb. 14, 1940).
__ February 13; Baltic countries. In Estonia , Latvia and Lithuania more than 10,000 persons suffered severe frostbite. At least five persons froze to death in the three Baltic countries, where temperatures reached 54 degrees below zero Fahrenheit (- 47.7°C) recently for the first time in 160 years (NYT, Feb. 14, 1940).
__ February 20, 1940; In Sweden all cold records were broken in the last twenty-four hours with 32 degrees below zero Fahrenheit (-35.5°C), the coldest since 1805. The previous record in Stockholm was 22 F degrees below zero. Copenhagen tonight 2 degrees above zero Fahrenheit. (NYT, Feb. 21, 1940).

Should these facts neglected when discussing climate change today? That is unacceptable. It is foremost the duty of science to take the matter serious, but an ambitious newspaper should be able to ask questions about the causes of such events. Science would quickly face problems regarding the greenhouse theory. One would pretty soon realize that science is working with confusing explanations and even a serous newspaper as the NYT accepts that unquestioned. Let’s have a look at the Q&A, Part 1-No.1, which reads as it follows:  

“ 1. Climate change? Global warming? What do we call it?

Both are accurate, but they mean different things.
You can think of global warming as one type of climate change. The broader term covers changes beyond warmer temperatures, such as shifting rainfall patterns.
President Trump has claimed that scientists stopped referring to global warming and started calling it climate change because “the weather has been so cold” in winter. But the claim is false. Scientists have used both terms for decades.”

 Nothing in this respect is accurate. At best ‘climate’ is statistic. If science defines ‘climate’ as average weather, ‘climate’ is nothing else as statistic. Moreover weather can be typified into hundred and more items. But science has avoided to come up saying what weather is. The American Meteorology Society offers that weather is “The state of the atmosphere, mainly with respect to its effects upon life and human activities” (More HERE). Try to make an “average” of that and at best you have fake news. The only relevant weather criterion in so far is the rise and fall of air temperature, on a local, regional or global scale. The latter may be called global warming.  

That is all very sad. Changes of weather conditions will continue to occur, and human kind does not understand sufficiently why it happens, how to prevent what man is contributing, and take action to minimize threatening the global natural system anthropogenic. It is shocking that President Donald Trump is questioning the use of the term ‘climate change’ by science (Q&A, Part 1-No.1), and since long challenge “that scientists are engaged in a worldwide hoax to fool the public” (Q&A, Part 1-No.6).Understanding the impact of human ocean uses in all its facets inclusive naval warfare during the World War could prove that Mr. Trump is right. He is hardly the man to understand how weather works, but certainly would claim that he is a genius, because he has said so ever since. A further political disaster.   

 

Winter 2017/18 – Record cold regions – Not in Europe –

What cooled Europe winter 1939/40 – Naval War  

Post 28th January 2018

First there had been the extreme cold wave east of the Rocky Mountains around New Year’s Day few weeks ago. “This cold wave was exceptional,” said Gabe Vecchi, a geoscientist at Princeton University, “for being 7°F to 11°F colder than the coldest two weeks in recent decades and for occurring so early in the season, especially in light of the decrease in intensity and frequency of cold waves over the past century.” A study by the World Weather Attribution group analyzed weather records dating back to 1880 and found this cold weather snap that hit a swath of the U.S. from Maine to Minnesota tends to happen once every 250 years”  (Source).

Also Siberia is much colder than normal. The average temperature has run below the norm at 8-16 degrees, meanwhile stretching westwards to the Balkan with temperature dropping below -20°C in Central Ukraine, in Romania below -17°C, and in Bulgaria below -13°C (Details at IceAge). Some time ago US-TODAY reported  (16.Jan.2018) that in Oymyakon/Russia temperature sank to a mind-numbing (and body-numbing) 88F below zero (-66.7C) which  isn’t far from minus 89.9F, the coldest-ever officially recorded for a permanently inhabited settlement anywhere in the world and the frostiest in the Northern Hemisphere. So far – so cold, and is remotely a situation

somewhat similar situation as in winter 1939/40 as outline in our previous post HERE. But the difference was Europe (Fig. 2a / 2b). Than it was the coldest winter for more than 100 years und in some location diminishes other records; in Berlin the coldest January since 1709 (Fig. 3), in Moscow ever.    

In winter 1939/40 an Arctic cold also reached the United Kingdom in January 1940. According “harrogateadvertiser”   was the coldest – at some places -since 1838 and the paralysis of life was virtually complete by the development of an exceptional ice storm on January 28. Previously, the U.K. had been overrun by a Siberian current of air battling against the North Atlantic – the combative mood of the weather in keeping with Hitler’s European advances. January 20 to 21 had been the coldest night of the 20th century up till that time, with temperatures widely down to 0 F (-18 C) with deep snow cover the length and breadth of Britain. On the night of the 23rd, a minimum of -23.3C was recorded in Wales at Rhaydaer(Powys) a record low for that date. The month was the coldest month in England (-1.4C) since February 1895. The most alerting aspect is that the cold was man-made. Only 150 days of war theatre into WWII was needed to impel Europe into ice-age condition.

But climate research shows no interest to understand why. Neither the Met-Office is able to explain the extraordinary event, although January 1940 offered more than low temperatures, but will always be remembered for the Snowstorm and Ice-storm that struck the UK.

 

Other lows include -20°C at Canterbury, Welshpool, Hereford and Newport in Shropshire. The Thames was frozen for 8 miles between Teddington and Sunbury and ice covered stretches of the Mersey, Humber and Severn. The sea froze at Bognor Regis and Folkestone and Southampton harbours were iced over. The Grand Union Canal was completely frozen over between Birmingham and London. Central London was below freezing for a week and there was skating on the Serpentine on 6″ ice. (MORE)
However January 1940 will always be remembered for the Snowstorm and Ice storm that struck the UK.
 

SNOWSTORM On the 26th, two occlusions were moving up from the SW engaged the cold air over the UK. At the same time, the anticyclone over Scandinavia was intensifying blocking the fronts from pushing through the UK, they became stationary over Wales and SW England. This resulted in a great snowstorm across many northern and eastern areas. Vast areas of northern England reported between 30-60cm of level snow, the higher parts in excess of 60cm+. The snowfall lasted to the 29th of January

 

ICESTORM Ice storms are rare in the UK, but the worst incident was in January 1940, It was the coldest winter for a century when, on January 27, a savage ice storm swept much of southern Britain. The landscape seemed to be encased in glass, trees looked like frozen waterfalls, and the ice weighed them down until they broke and smashed to the ground. (The Times, 2007). Precipitations fell as freezing rain, which is reckoned to be the severest that has struck the UK in recorded history. The duration of the storm was remarkable lasting up to 48 hours in places. The effect of this prolonged ice storm was severe and damaging.

 Summary

The climatic down-fall in the U.K. and Europe in winter 1939/40 is mainly, at least partly, the result of an intensive war at sea. Due to huge naval activities the reginal seas lost too much of their summer heat too early. The cold from the East cold easily reach Great Britain an exceptional ice storm. Now, in winter 2017/18 the opposite occurs. Various activities at sea, including the installation of huge off-shore wind farms ensure that the sea surface supplies a steady heat flow to the atmosphere, and is kept free from freezing. A better understanding and recognition of the physical abilities of regional sea and wider ocean areas would greatly help understanding climate change issues.

Added: 15 Feb. 2018 Added: 15 Feb. 2018

Cold snap in the USA and in Europe – 78 years apart.

U.S. Cold Snap New Year Day 2018
versus

Europe’s Climatic Shift in winter 1939/40

 
 Posted: 03 January 2018  – Amended 06 January 2018 (below)

Is it worth to look at two events which have little more in common than their timing around New Year Day? Definitely not when taking the most obvious difference into account, as the first event World War II was in full swing for four months already. 

The current cold snap started briefly before years end 2017 left the US shivering in record-breaking temperatures on New Year’ Day 2018 is expected to worsen in the coming days.  Over 85% of the nation is below freezing, and nearly 1/3 is below 0 deg. F. The forecast is for cold air to continue to flow down out of Canada into the central and eastern U.S. for most of the coming week.

Almost eight decades ago cold affected Europe and the U.S.A. For several US Gulf States January was the all-time coldest month (Fig. 3 & 5) and ended in February. The cold in Europe had just started (Fig. 1), was the coldest for more than 100 years, and marked the beginning of a global cooling for three decades until the mid-1970s. As science failed to investigate the possibility of a man-made climatic shift due to naval war, it might be reasonable to raise the European war winter 1939/40 in the light of  the current U.S. cold snap, while current winter temperature in Europe are well above average, and are likely to stay that way (Fig. 6, 7, 8).

What surprises that meteorology is offering too little explanation why the current cold snap happened. We are convinced that climate science could explain the situation better, when it had paid more interest and attention to the WWII winter 1939/40, which was so unique in many respect that bulk of difference could offer many clues. The first 100 days naval war initiated numerous weather changes.

After all the interesting aspect of the exceptional war winter 1939/40 as not naval war, but the inevitable conclusion of ‘sea structure change’ was a serious contributor; see Chapter C1-C9 at: seaclimate.com. For how serious the winter in Europe was in making in the first half of January 1940, we provide a few examples from The New York Times Fig. 11-16.  

Amended 06 January 2018

Off the coast of Norway, from 20th to 21st December 1939 a drop in air pressure of 54,5 mb  (see Fig. below) occurred within 24 hours, which caused up to 12 Bft wind. Was naval war activities related?  

Few days later temperature fell dramatically from all over in Northern Europe;

More details HERE

 

First January week 2018: North America’s East Coast

First January week 2018: North America’s East Coast is shivering in a record-breaking freeze in the wake of a deadly “bomb cyclone” that dumped snow as far south as Florida.

In parts of US and Canada, temperatures were forecast to fall below -20F (-29C), on Friday night (4/5 Jan 2018).

A “bomb cyclone” or “weather bomb” is an unofficial term when the central pressure of a low pressure system falls by 24 millibars in 24 hours

 

“bomb cyclone.”

Reuters | Updated: January 07, 2018 13:52 IST (Extract)

Wind chill and freeze warnings stretched from New England to Ohio and Pennsylvania. In some of these places, exposed skin could freeze within 30 minutes,

In New Hampshire, the ambient air temperature on Mount Washington plunged to -36 F (minus 38C), two degrees short of a record low for Jan. 6.

The East Coast’s first snowstorm of 2018 was energized by a rapid drop in barometric pressure that some weather forecasters called a bombogenesis, or a “bomb cyclone.” The phenomenon gave rise to gusts of more than 70 mph (113 km/h) and produced snowfall totals of 22 inches (56 cm) in parts of Maine and 17 inches (43 cm) in parts of Massachusetts, the NWS said.

 Jan 8, 2018 – Extract -: The blast of arctic air that has engulfed the US east coast has broken  temperature records in several cities.

The National Weather Service said the temperature in Worcester, Massachusetts, fell to -22c on Sunday, (01/07/18) breaking a record of minus -19c set in 1942.

In Providence, Rhode Island, temperatures of -19c set a new record low.

And in Hartford, Connecticut, the temperature dropped to -23c, smashing the previous record of -17c.

Boston tied a low-temperature record set more than a century ago in 1896 of -18c.

Many residents in north-eastern states endured jaw-clenching temperatures and brutal wind chills on Saturday as cleanup continued from the storm that dropped as much as 46 centimetres of snow in some places on Thursday.
Source: 9News

 

 

The New York Times about human-caused climate change in December 2017 and 1939

Does fair reporting alone serve the truth? Not if one neglects the NYT Christmas story of 24th December 1939!

Posted: 21st December 2017

Towards the end of 2017 [14. Dec.*)], Brad Plumer and Nadia Popovich from  the NYT summarized a report by the American Meteorology Society about 27 extreme weather events 2016, down to “five items”, which researchers around the world analyzed, and found that human-caused climate change was a “significant driver” for 21 of them. The NYT titled the article: “How Global Warming Fueled Five Extreme Weather Events”. That is fair, but is it enough in the light of what the NYT reported about weather events during World War II, but never asked whether it was likely human-caused. More than seven decades have been lost to understand how much have the two World Wars contributed to climate change during the last century (Book 2004; Book 2012).  We give a chilling example: White Christmas 1939 in Finland, and subsequently a few more details.       

        *) In the International Edition on December 20th.

“Merry Christmas”

In Finland the average December air-temperature usually range between – 4°C (south) and -6°C (north) – Fig. 4. That was generally the case in the 1930s, but changed dramatically as soon as the first war winter had started in December 1939. On Thursday, 30 November 1939 the Russian Red Army attacked Finland with several million men, 1’000 tanks

Figure 3

Figure 4

Figure 5

and 500 fighting places in the Lake Ladoga region (NYT, 07 Dec.39). Only three weeks later it is reported that: At the Arctic front the Russians retreat in less than minus 30° C. (Neue Zürcher Zeitung, NZZ, 22 Dec.1939). North Finland temperatures down to -30° /-36° C. (Hamburger Anzeiger, 22 Dec.1939). From the Karelian Isthmus Harold Denny reported temperatures as low as -10°F (-23°C); NYT 25 Dec.1939. From a location – Kemijärvi in Central Finland – about 800km further north, of Helsinki, but still 400km south of the Barents Sea, James Aldridge reported from his experience on Christmas Eve  [NYT, 25 December 1939, extract; full report see Fig. 3]:                                                                                                                                                                   

 “The cold numbs the brain in this Arctic hell, snow sweeps over the darkened wastes, the winds howl and the temperature is 30 degrees below zero (minus 34.4 ° C). Here the Russians and Finns are battling in blinding snowstorms for possession of ice-covered forests. …I reached the spot just after the battle ended. It was the most horrible sight I had ever seen. As if the men had been suddenly turned to wax, there were two or three thousand Russians and a few Finns, all frozen in fighting attitudes. Some were locked together, their bayonets within each other’s bodies; some were frozen in half-standing positions; some were crouching with their arms crooked, holding the hand grenades they were throwing; some were lying with their rifles shouldered, their legs apart….(T)heir fear was registered on the frozen faces. Their bodies were like statues of men throwing all their muscles and strength into some work, but their faces recorded something between bewilderment and horror.”

As  shocking as the story is, it is not less shocking to recognize that climate science thinks it can ignore such report, which certainly has much to offer in explaining human-caused climatic changes!

The first 100 days naval war initiated numerous weather changes

Since the 1st of September numerous significant deviation from statistical means occurred; for example:
diversion of a cyclone, rain pattern, and wind shift. About 250 ships with 1 Million tons had been sunk (Fig. 7). Naval war ranged heavily in the Baltic, North Sea and from Orkney Island to the North Cap. Was it naval activities off the coast of Norway that caused a drop in air pressure of 54,5 mb within 24 hours (see Fig. 1, 6, 13 & 14)? Up to 12 Bft wind were reported. A few years later the meteorologist M. Rodewald regarded it as a sea-change for winter 1939/40, which it was not, at least not alone. From a meteorological point of view, almost every day in WWII offered exciting weather situations, which most likely was closely linked to treatment of ocean regions by naval war. Claiming instead “natural variability” sounds dumb, and is irresponsible. Naval war in the sea areas of Europe, particularly in the North- and Baltic Sea, could be easily identified as a significant contributor to many weather events and the mentioned Christmas story by NYT reporter James Aldridge. Not only have the war victims deserved an explanation, we all need to know! Actually, Christmas 1939 was only the very early beginning of the coldest European winter in more than 100 years, and several hundred ‘meteorological specialties’ during the further five war years, while climate science knows nothing about it, neither does show any interest. Let’s still hope for better times!

 MERRY CHRISTMAS and a very HAPPY NEW YEAR 2018!

 

Not competent enough to read the wind-shift in W-Europe 1939

Unprecedented wind shift after WWII
commenced, one in over 100 years  

Post 03  Dezember 2017

As early as October 1939

 At the end of October 1939 the “Seewarte” (the German Naval weather service) analysts had realised that the wind pattern over Northern Europe had changed completely (Fig.1. Unfortunately they lacked the competence to read the signs. According to their observations:

    Hamburg reported winds from the North-Eastern quadrant on almost two thirds of the dates observed (33% easterly winds out of 65%) while North-Eastern winds accounted only for a quarter (26%) of several previous years’ averages. Otherwise the most frequent direction of the wind – South-West (24%) – accounted for 9% of all cases. Thus the observations at this station alone show what the weather charts of an extensive area will obviously indicate as well (Seewarte, Nov. 02, 1939), next Figure C5-8.

This is a very strong and clear indication that huge air masses moved  from Eurasia continent to West Europe. Unusually high evaporation affected by naval war, caused a shift in the wind direction. While the water of the seas was ‘stirred and turned’ the ‘steam’ rose upwards into the sky, causing an air inflow from easterly directions, which subsequently prevented low-pressure systems to travel along the west-wind-drift channel via North Sea and Central Europe into the eastern hemisphere.

The rare wind from North-East

Based on works of different authors, Drummond explains that, from 1788 to 1942, only 21 winters but of 155 had easterly residuals; only 7 since 1846 and only three since 1903, namely 1904 (SSE), 1929 (ESE), and 1940 (ENE). The latter is the most stunning one. In only three years, the wind changed to the north-east sector. That happened in 1814 (NE), 1841 (NE), and during the winter of 1939/40 (ENE). It must have had a cause, which should be identified. An interesting aspect could be that the other two war winters of 1940/41 and 1941/42 did not make it in the list of years with winds from the east. They had, like the other 153 winters, winds from the west, although they came along with a considerable cold average. That made the exceptional winter of 1939/40 even more interesting. For more details see HERE

An urgent need to research

It is difficult to understand that science has not picked up the wind-shift issue for a better understanding a possible link between naval war and climatic change. If the winter wind in Western Europe did blew only two times in about 150 years from NE something extraordinary must have happened. As the general situation had been ‘normal’ until World War II commenced in September 1939, the question is inevitable: Why so suddenly and why in Europe? The logical answer would be to assess all circumstances, and if there is no ground for any ‘natural’ reason, it seems irresponsible not to consider an anthropogenic cause. Actually war has a profound impact on air and sea. Particularly naval warfare during autumn churn the sea over huge areas, and thus release more quickly the heat stored during the summer season, with significant impact on the atmosphere and the sea water temperature. It is like stirrng the hot coffee to cool it down.  Subsequently icy air more easily can travel from Siberia to the Atlantic shore of Western Europe. It happened only few months in war, resulting in the coldest winter in many regions, in more than 100 years. It is high time to research the wind-shift seriously.

More at Booklet “War Changes Climate” Chapter A, Chapter B, Chapter  C I , Chapter C II Chapter D, Chapter E