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Record Heat in Europe – Incredible neglect of the influence of regional seas

Europe’s weather blocking started in March

Posted: 18 August 2018

Incredible! Several months extraordinary summer from Great Britain to Finland!  Nowhere a clear explanation. Since spring, an expansive high-pressure ridge aloft has stretched across most of northern Europe, the reasons are not sufficiently explicated anywhere. Europe experienced a very dry spring and summer but the meteorological conditions causing it are hardly addressed. It was the hottest May-through-July on record in Europe reported the Washington Post  – August 18, 2018 ; reprint: sciencealert.  Billions and multi-billions have been invested in climatic research over the last several decades, and so little competence has emerged. Incredible!

Generously the MetOffice announced on 27th July 2018 : “We’re aiming to understand why the weather pattern this summer was so persistent, and to what extent this persistence may be influenced by human-induced climate change, as well as the role of global warming by greenhouse gases in raising the temperatures experienced in the heat wave. We’ll publish our findings later in the year.” Neither this post nor corresponding analyses in THE GUARDIAN (see an excerpt in the box) have much to say:

THE GUARDIAN

 Robin McKie;

 

Sun 22 Jul 2018

“The jet stream we are currently experiencing is extremely weak and, as a result, areas of atmospheric high pressure are lingering for long periods over the same place,” added Mitchell.
Other factors involved in creating the meteorological conditions that have brought such heat to the northern hemisphere include substantial changes to sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic. “These are part of a phenomenon known as the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation,” said Professor Adam Scaife, of the Met Office.
“In fact, the situation is very like the one we had in 1976, when we had similar ocean temperatures in the Atlantic and an unchanging jet stream that left great areas of high pressure over many areas for long periods,” said Scaife.

The weather blocking started already in March

The major player in the event is certainly the lower than usual water temperatures in the mid latitudes of the North Atlantic, but without contributing regional sea water conditions across West and Northern Europe the record heat waves here and all over the Norther Hemisphere would not have happed – at least not in such an exceptional way. Weather blocking in Europe, north of the Alps, which prevents  the flow of low air pressure cyclones from the Atlantic via Central Europe to the East, require a substantial input by coastal  seas and particular the North and Baltic Sea.

After a mild winter, a cold spring was expected, we elaborated here on 26th February, as it follows:

[but] keep in mind that the current winter in Northern Europe had been extremely mild, to which shipping and the huge off-shore windfarms in the North- and Baltic Sea may have considerably contributed. The matter was thoroughly discussed in a paper-2016, and for example HERE. Any coffee stirred for too long gets cold. As soon as the reginal seas across Europe have lost too much of their heat stored during the summer season, cold air from Siberian can reach Europe and establish reign for days or weeks, respectively delay the arrival of spring. 

The subsequent post -17 March 2018 – states:

Europe’s Cold Spring – Man Made?
2nd Shivering in mid-March 2018

Extract: The last few days weather development support the thesis. Europe’s spring, respectively the months April, May and June are likely to show sub-temperature, as indicated in Fig. 1. Already forthcoming April the forecast indicates a significant negative anomaly (Fig. 2), with the North Sea and Baltics in focus. Why does it happen exactly in the regions? The explanation presumably stems from the various anthropogenic activities at sea.
Lengthy discussed HERE:

By two Addenda  [24. March] the question was raised: What do offshore wind farms contribute to the weather situation in April? A convincing answer would be a big bon for understanding climate, and how effective human activities at sea are to contribute to weather making and climate change”, and mentioned [on 01 April] that the: “Seasonal sea ice in the Baltic remained substantial below average. The peak was around the 10th March 2018, and is far away from the mean by the end of March.”

Presumably the principle conditions for an early spring and dry and hot summer was already laid since the cold air drop in from Siberia. Above normal air pressure ensures little cloudiness. Abundantly sunshine raises regional air temperature during daytime and dry-out the soil. High-pressure areas could establish more and more solidly over Northern Europe and deny cyclones and the jet-stream to travel unhindered eastwards, resulting in strong and lasting weather blocking. Atmospheric blocking alters normal climates across Europe and Russia by shifting low pressure tracks. In such a case cyclones and zonal wind pattern, e.g. known as the jet stream, deviates form a common pathway and reroute north and south of the anticyclone.

Weather blocking in Northern Europe is not uncommon, more in winter than in spring and summer, but well known; see:  Lukas Brunner, 2016. For example it happened during the first three war-winters 1939/40 to 1941/42, with strong weather blockings that wouldn’t had occurred without fierce naval war activities. Nowadays the regional seas in Europe are heavily used by shipping, fishing, off-shore wind farms etc. with a profound effect on the seawater structure that causes milder winters and colder springs, as analyzed in the paper: Northern Europe’s Mild Winters;  (in PDF). But nowhere the North- and Baltic Sea is even mentioned. The MetOffice is merely “aiming to understand why the weather pattern this summer was so persistent”. That is too little! That is incredible!

Blame the Jet Stream? – A too modest answer!

Scandinavian High causing global weather havoc?  

Post 30. July 2018
Below: Addendum A – 01 August 2018 – Too little understanding on what cause the weather blocking over N-Europe

What’s going on? Temperature exceeded more than 30°C North of the Polar Circle recently. Temperatures have soared over much of Europe over the last month, regularly exceeding 30°C and several temperature records have been broken. The conditions have been so extreme that wildfires have broken out in Sweden and the UK. Other continents either wonder about excessive heats. And what is causing this weather extreme? The most you can here is that it is a case of weather blocking, or the jet stream, the core of strong winds some kilometers above the Earth’s surface that blow west to east and move weather around the globe, which currently is looping to the north, but very weak, meaning the weather is staying in place. That describes a weather phenomenon, but not the reason why it is happening.  But it is the way meteorology is talking about this extraordinary event. That is too little. A good explanation is pending.

Cold early spring.

Just as a reminder. After a modest winter 2017/18 in early spring the trend changed. Suddenly the news-press reported about an arctic blast currently sweeping the country is to worsen over next week, warns Météo France, with some areas set to experience temperatures that feel as low as -25°C with wind chill. From Monday 26 February, the “Moscow-Paris glacial wave” from north-east Europe, which has already brought severe cold, is expected to bring lower temperatures still, and a wind chill that will make it feel even colder across the Hexagon. Mountain regions could feel as bitter as -25°C or below, and Paris is predicted to experience temperatures that feel as low as -13°C.”

   More A: Coldest spring weather since 2010 expected ;    More B: 2nd cold snap in Europe mid-March 2018

Heatwave in May 2018

How unusual is it that the May weather is as hot as it was this year in Sweden? Will this become commonplace in a changed climate? At SMHI, researchers and climatologists have analysed weather statistics and concluded that it was uncommonly warm and that it represented a record high which could remain unchallenged for a long time to come. (More HERE)

Iceland worst summer for 100 years

Iceland’s greyest, wettest summer since 1914 can be blamed on the UK heat wave, says Icelandic meteorologist Trausti Jonsson. “The people of Reykjavík are paying for the sunshine in England and southern Scandinavia,” said Jonsson, thanks to high pressure over western Europe changing the jet stream and pushing clouds over the north of the continent. (THE GUARDIAN)

July  – Intense heat wave to bake western Europe

A hot July across much of Western Europe (AccuWeather, July 26, 2018) will climb to another level this week as a heat wave builds from Spain to Scandinavia. Some locations that may have their highest temperatures of the year this week include Madrid, Spain; Paris, France; Frankfurt, Germany; Amsterdam, Netherlands; and Stockholm, Sweden. While unseasonable heat is expected each day through this weekend, the hottest conditions are expected on Thursday and Friday.High temperatures will soar to or above 32 C (90 F) from the interior of Spain through much of France, Netherlands, Belgium and western Germany both days. High temperatures may reach 35 C (95 F) in Paris, Brussels and Cologne.Temperatures may reach 32 C (90 F) as far north as southern Sweden, including Stockholm.

Battle between LOW and HIGH

From the UK, across to Scandinavia and Japan, the hot weather is expected to continue for the rest of the month (July). Japan has just declared a natural disaster. Various temperature records for July were broken in southern California, eastern Canada, Algeria and Norway. Extreme temperatures led to public health warnings and even the temporary closure of Hanover airport as the thermometer hit highs of 36 degrees in some parts of Germany on Tuesday. So what is going on?

The indicated locations indicate that the jet-stream is not flowing across the North Atlantic straight from West to East, via Asia, Pacific and North America. That would be weather as usual. As the first image (above shows) the jet-stream is forced to the Arctic, blocked from moving rain and clouds in low-pressure formations across Central Europe eastwards, which is a result not the cause of more important weather phenomenon.

The path to identify the main mechanism to the current heatwave is the windy and wet weather in Island due to Low pressure and the lasting High pressure across Scandinavia. The two opposing pressure areas are responsible. Actually the most important factor is the High over Northern Europe, as that is the source which blocks the drifting of low pressure fields eastwards some call it west-wind-drift. A High pressure system to strive needs foremost cold air, low moisture, and a very dry landscape.  

 Unfortunately this does not explain the reason why the current High-pressure is so lasting and persistent in place. That is an urgent task for meteorology to find out. The current extreme blocking situation provides a chance to do what they failed to do in previous similar events. Until now they merely talk about global warming, sea-ice conditions, and Atlantic temperatures. Another important factor, the local and coastal seas from the Biscay to the Barents Sea, is largely ignored. For sure the Scandinavian High gets an immediate and substation support from the North Sea and Baltic Sea. We will amend this post if these regional matters are discussed by the weather services and climatology.   

Too little understanding on what cause the
weather blocking over N-Europe

Addendum A – 01 August 2018

The westerly circulation across Europe ceased since spring 2018 but meteorology does not know and does not discuss WHY? Although extreme blocking of the ‘west-wind-drift’ by an anticyclone (high pressure area) over Northern Europe emerge usually in winter such as 1683/84, 1739/40, 1794/95, 1829/30, 1894/95, 1916/17, 1941/42, February 1947 and 1962/63, but spring/summer blocking is possible. Although the phenomenon is known since long, the mechanism not. For sure the ingredients can and will be numerous, for example North Atlantic sea temperatures and sea ice conditions. But two principle conditions related to the strengths of a high pressure system over Northern Europe receive little attention, if any, namely dried-out conditions over parts of the continent and the sea-water conditions in the North Sea, Baltic Sea and the coastal seas from the Biscay to the Barents Sea.  These two preconditions contribute to weather blocking in Northern Europe for sure. To know nothing about it, nor show interest to understand more about it, is unacceptable, when climate change matters are called the greatest threat man faces.  
For a brief overview links to two Journal essays (2009 & 2017) and five recent news-paper reports are given here after.  
2009 – Jana Sillmann et al: Present and future atmospheric blocking and its impact on European mean and extreme climate; https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2009GL038259
Excerpt: Atmospheric blocking plays an important role in the mid‐latitude climate variability and can be responsible for anomalous mean and/or extreme climate.
2017 – Lucas Brunner: Connecting Atmospheric Blocking to European Temperature Extremes in Spring;
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0518.1 pdf
Excerpt: We found blocking in winter and early spring to be stronger connected to cold conditions
whereas blocking in late spring and summer is stronger connected to warm conditions.
….. blocking over central Europe is associated with warmer conditions, particularly from March onward
25 July, 2018 ; ‘Extreme jet-stream behavior’ causing global weather havoc’ , http://www.staradvertiser.com/2018/07/25/breaking-news/extreme-jet-stream-behavior-causing-global-weather-havoc/
Excerpt: The situation in Scandinavia has been “pretty mind boggling,” with the Baltic Sea water rising to 15 degrees above average and Lapland north of the Arctic Circle reaching the 90s, Masters said. “That is really eye catching sort of heat.”
above. April 2018  
26. July 2018; July sees extreme weather with high impacts; https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/july-sees-extreme-weather-high-impacts
Excerpt: The persistency of high temperatures in some regions – including northern Europe – has been due to a stationary high pressure system.  ….
There is much scientific research into whether climate change and substantial changes to sea surface temperature, escalated by high multi-decadal natural variability, are contributing to more profound effect in altering the atmospheric circulation and so leading to more “blocking patterns.”
above. May 2018  
27. July 2018: Summer temperature 2018 – the ‘new normal’? https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2018/07/27/summer-temperature-2018-the-new-normal/
Excerpt: The jet stream has weakened and got stuck to the north of the UK, with high pressure settled over the UK and Europe. In the summer such a pattern leads to dry soils, which means that if the sunny weather continues the energy of the sun is not used up in evaporating water and the temperatures rise even more. 
above. June 2018  
27. July 2018: MetOff/UK
https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2018/07/27/summer-temperature-2018-the-new-normal/
Excerpt: The jet stream has weakened and got stuck to the north of the UK, with high
pressure settled over the UK and Europe. In the summer such a pattern leads to dry soils,
which means that if the sunny weather continues the energy of the sun is not used up in
evaporating water and the temperatures rise even more.
   
30. July 2018: July sees extreme weather with high impacts; https://www.finchannel.com/world/74869-july-sees-extreme-weather-with-high-impacts
Excerpt: Atmospheric blocking alters normal climates across Europe and Russia by shifting storm tracks. Typically associated with an anticyclone, the zonal wind pattern known as the jet stream deviates from its mean position and its westerly winds reroute north and south of the anticyclone.
   
   

Ocean – Air heat and water exchange is the climate flywheel

Too superficially explained by Michele Fieux et al – 
in: The Ocean revealed (p.68f)

Post: 20th July 2018

The ocean plays a fundamental role in the establishment of our climate. The meaning of fundamental is clear: a central or primary base or core on which something is based. Michele Fieux et al acknowledge in their essay “Ocean-atmosphere exchanges and water mass formation” that the ocean is a core player to establish climate.  That is a clear statement but unfortunately not reflected in the essay. Too superficial, and too little focus on the oceans dimension (Fig.1).

On one hand it is certainly necessary to mention that ‘the ocean is heated from above’. But if the ocean covers 71% of the Earth’s surface and represents more than 96% of the Earth’s free water, it is incredible negligent not to elaborate on the fact that the mean ocean temperature is a low as 4° Celsius.

It is of course correct to mention that the ocean-atmosphere fluid ensemble is an immense thermal machine fueled by the sun, resulting in particular strong thermal stratification in the surface layer, but a failure not to discuss that the immediate sun induced sea surface layer comprise at maximum only few dozen meters, neither to mention the role of salinity, which may vary significantly due to precipitation. The aspect of rain is important as it is fresh-water, which usually ‘swim’ above saltier and colder water for some time, until wind and ocean human uses (shipping, fishing etc) start mixing the surface layer.

The essay is close to wrong when stating that these heat and water losses (at the sea surface) have significant consequences, particularly for deep-ocean circulation, as by far the main criteria are differences in temperature and salinity. Even the smallest differences contribute to the motion of the huge ocean water body, which results in a global deep-ocean circulation system that requires up to thousands of years to complete a global circumnavigation.

Michele Fieux et al conclude their essay asserting that:

The ocean plays a fundamental role in the establishment of our climate. It stores solar energy, transports it, and transmits it to the atmosphere. It thus helps diminish climate contrasts. Ocean circulation is the main climate-regulating process on the surface of our planet. The ocean provides the short, medium and very long term ‘memory’ of the atmosphere.

The last sentence reveals that the authors understanding of our global climate system is fuzzy. The atmosphere and its influence (although important for man due to weather conditions) is a mere appendix in this system, while the ocean provides the short, medium and very long term climatic condition on this planet. Not being very clear leads to the often heard dumb notion that “Predicting Climate is Easier than Predicting Weather”, or more detailed:

Climate is average weather, which is more predictable than day-to-day and hour-to-hour weather changes. Weather behaviour is chaotic and often difficult to predict beyond a week or so into the future. By comparison, climate is largely determined by global and regional geophysical processes that change slowly. Hence, if these factors are properly understood and predictable, then the climate can be forecast far into the future with a significant degree of confidence.*)

 Anyone who is willing and able to recognize how little is known about the ocean and how little data are available for any reliably assessment, will reject the statement as unreasonable chatter.  

h/t:NOTRICKZONE – 20. July 2018*)

Global Warming = Ocean Warming

According to the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the atmosphere accounts for only 1% of the heat energy change in the Earth system, whereas the 0-2000 meter layer of the ocean is where 93% of the globe’s overall heat/temperature change has occurred in recent decades.

*) False Alarm: New Study Finds Global Ocean Warmed By 0.02°C From 1994-2013, With Cooling Below 3600m By Kenneth Richard on 20. July 2018

Image Source: Wunsch, 2018

 Read also Andy May at WUWT, July 21, 2018, “Stephen, Why Global Warming is not a problem”

Reference:  Michèle Fieux, Gilles Reverdin, Sabrina Speich and Pascale Delecluse ; in “The Oceans revealed”, Editors: Agathe Euzen, Françoise Gaill, Denis Lacroix, Philippe Cury (Paris 2016); 10. Ocean-atmosphere exchanges and water mass formation,  p. 68f.

*) http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/global_warming/climate_models_accuracy.html

“A blue planet” – In: The Ocean revealed

A blue planet, by Catherine Jeandel and Pascale Delecluse (book p.22f)

Post: 20 June 2018 

Natural, an overview over the global ocean, which covers almost three-quarter of its surface, needs an early place in a book with 133 chapters and 323 pages.  The authors got the place. They raise some principle facts, including that the oceans hold a huge volume of salt water: 1.4 billion cubic meters! Its average temperature is just 2 °C. The coldest temperatures are negative, because the salt in seawater means that it does not freeze until it reaches –1.9 °C.

If science talks about climate, they talk about average weather in the atmosphere. That

raises immediately a principle point missing in the essay, namely that the ration between water in the air and the ocean is 1:1000, and the annual temperature difference about 15° Celsius. The sun merely heats a very thin layer of the sea surface (see images). Only a small amount of freezing cold deep-water replacing surface water, could trigger a period of low air temperatures, as for example from 1940 to the mid-.1970th, presumably due to naval warfare in WWII (see last image).

Outstanding question: what sets the depth of the thermocline?

Due to the fact that cold water will be denser than warm water, and salty water will be denser than less salty water, the ocean structure from top to its maximum depth of 11’020 meter, from the human perspective, seems fairly stable, but any force pushing deep water to the surface, would change the situation dramatically. The authors neglect this point. They neither raise the possible influence by man’s activities at sea that pushes sun-warmed surface water down to lower sea levels. These activities may have significantly contributed to global warming since the end of the Little Ice Age around 1850.

Beside from mentioning “the ballet of the currents”, meaning the global ocean current system, within which the water takes 1000 years to complete on full lap, their major concern is the impact of carbon dioxide (CO2). To them not the oceans-make-climate, instead “the ocean also plays a role in regulating carbon dioxide in the atmosphere” (p. 23).

The authors explanation goes at is follows:
__ On average, human activities emit 10 gigatonnes of CO2   per year. A third of this additional gas penetrates into the ocean, is absorbed in the surface layers and therefore upsets the natural balances.
­__
Two balances are affected: the physico-chemical and biological CO2 pump, and the energy exchange between the air and the water, since the ocean absorbs 90% of global warming.
__Climatologists are therefore fully justified in worrying about this slow accumulation of changes in our ‘blue planet’. (page 23)

By this a gross limitation of the relevance of the sea in climate change matters to the carbon-dioxide issue, they lack any imagination of how the Blue Planet works. The planet is not only blue but extreme cold, where the lifeline of man is bound to an extreme thin sea surface layer, which can be changed by natural events, but also by numerous human activities at sea. Science foremost task would be to understand how much man has already induced changes in the ocean system and subsequently altered weather pattern and climate. The principle reference to CO2 is by far too little to be concerned of, which is to prevent the Blue Planet from anthropogenic global warming (AGW) and climate changes.

The Ocean revealed  : http://horizon.documentation.ird.fr/exl-doc/pleins_textes/divers17-11/010071612.pdf

Fred Singer asserts: Sea-level rise is a riddle and a puzzle – Don’t accept it!

Understand the human contribution to sea level rise

Post: 22 May 2018

True but not acceptable if Prof. Fred Singer asserts: The sea is rising, but not because of Climate Change, and there is nothing we can do about it, except to build dikes and sea walls a little bit higher. In his recent WSJ essay (15 May 2018), also HERE and HERE, he writes:

Of all known and imagined consequences of climate change, many people fear sea-level rise most. But efforts to determine what causes seas to rise are marred by poor data and disagreements about methodology. The noted oceanographer Walter Munk referred to sea-level rise as an “enigma”; it has also been called a riddle and a puzzle.

The message is: Whatever cause any ocean rise man has to except that as he has little chance to stop or reverse the trend. So far so good. The oceans are huge, too big to control, or to manage. Therefor it is easy to agree with Prof. Singer that presumable nothing can be done about a rising sea. But while is it unacceptable? We do not know the oceanic warming mechanism in detail. It is too much a “riddle and a puzzle” to be sure that human activities at seas do not contribute, and whether that can be minimized or avoided.

Singer is a trained atmospheric physicist. Born 1924 he is known for his work in space research, atmospheric pollution, rocket and satellite technology. Most significantly he argues there is neither  evidence that global warming is attributable to human-caused increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide, and that climate models are neither based on reality nor evidence. His booklet “Hot Talk Cold Science – Global Warming’s unfinished Debate” ; Oakland 1998,  explains his view in details. It is worth reading and his stance made him to one of the most eminent so-called: climate skeptics. He deserves it.

But what is wrong about his notion: ”there is nothing we can do about rising sea”? Throughout his long research career and extensive publication, the oceans have received little attention, although they may have provided an answer to questions he and others raised. Here is one example Singer raised frequently (e.g. HERE) that long overdue to be explained:

For example, the data show that the climate warmed between 1900 and 1940, long before humanity used much energy. But then the climate cooled between 1940 and 1975.

Indeed at about 1918 started an extreme warming trend, and very surprising cooling trend in 1940. The first date is closely related to the First World War, and the later date to the commencement of the 2. World War on 1st September 1939. In both cases huge activities at sea took place. During the 1st WW naval warfare was close to Europe and a sudden shift in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic Sea started a warming of the Northern Hemisphere until 1939. During the 2nd WW naval activities at first close to Europe’ shores became eventually a global matter. In both cases the ocean relevance to climatic shifts was eminent.  This blog offers a number of posts for more information, and access to the PDF version of the ‘Booklet on Naval War changes Climate’

For more than 150 years merchant ships and fishing vessels change the structure of sea surface water temperatures down to 10 meter depth. All told that may result in 100’000’000 kilometer across the oceans every day. That moves more heat in than out. Ignoring this aspect when discussing sea level rise is little convincing.
                            MORE at OCEANS-GOVERN-CLIMATE.

Regarding the sea as enigma is of little help, and completely unacceptable to render to sea level rise, at least not so long as any human contribution can be defiantly be excluded.

Arctic Warming 100 years ago – Due to Naval War in Europe 1914-1918

 All war-churned water flow to the Arctic –
A proof how human has made climate!

Post: 14th April 2018 – Reference: http://www.arctic-heats-up.com/

Washington Post reported on 2 November 1922 based on information relayed by the American consul in Norway to the U.S. State Department in October 1922 and published in the Monthly Weather Review  ( Fig. left),  with the sensational hint that in 1918 a strong warming began – see last paragraph of extract (Fig. right and below):

In August, 1922, the Norwegian Department of Commerce sent an expedition to Spitzbergen and Bear Island under the leadership of Dr. Adolf Hoel, lecturer on geology at the University of Christiania. Its purpose was to survey and chart the lands adjacent to the Norwegian mines on those islands, take soundings of the adjacent waters, and make other oceanographic investigations.

Ice conditions were exceptional. In fact, so little ice has never before been noted. The expedition all but established a record, sailing as far north as 81° 29′ in ice-free water. This is the farthest north ever reached with modern oceanographic apparatus.

The character of the waters of the great polar basin has heretofore been practically unknown. Dr. Hoel reports that he made a section of the Gulf Stream at 81° north latitude and took soundings to a depth of 3,100 meters. These show the Gulf Stream very warm, and it could be traced as a surface current till beyond the 81st parallel. The warmth of the waters makes it probable that the favorable ice conditions will continue for some time.

In connection with Dr. Hoel’s report, it is of interest to note the unusually warm summer in Arctic Norway and the observations of Capt. Martin Ingebrigsten, who has sailed the eastern Arctic for 54 years past. He says that he first noted warmer conditions in 1918, that since that time it has steadily gotten warmer, and that to-day the Arctic of that region is not recognizable as the same region of 1868 to 1917.

SOURCE: Associated Press.   “Arctic Ocean Getting Warm; Seals Vanish and Icebergs Melt.”  
                                                  The Washington Post.   2 November 1922   (p. 2).

A detailed analysis can be read in the book (p.60), “ARCTIC HEATS UP – Spitsbergen 1919-1939” of which an excerpt is given as it follows:

  1. Spitsbergen as a Heating Spot

If one asks whether the heating-up spot is to be found at Spitsbergen, we would answer: yes. The information supplied sustain this affirmative answer. Nothing demonstrates this better than the data record taken at Spitsbergen since 1912. If one reviews the January/February temperature difference between the winters of 1913/14 and of 1919/20 (ca. + 15oC), or from the winters of 1916-1917 to the winters of 1919-1920 (ca. + 22oC), the results are not only extraordinary, but they reveal that the “shift” took place in 1918, respectively in the winter of 1918/19 (Hesselberg, 1956). This is emphasized by the comparison between the data recorded from 1912, until WWI ended in November 1918 (ca. – 4.3oC), and thereafter (ca. +3.8oC), including the winter of 1925/26.

In the summer of 1918 the seawater temperatures had already reached unusual values: +7oC to +8oC at the West coast of Spitsbergen (Weikmann, 1942). During the winter of 1918/19 the temperatures varied considerably. There were long periods in November and December 1918 with temperatures close to zero degrees, 4 days with temperatures above zero in November and 7 days in December[38]. In January 1919, the temperatures did not reach -5oC for 14 days, and five days were frost-free. The annual mean (1912-1926) with minus 7.7oC suddenly jumped to an annual average of minus 5.4oC in 1919, representing a plus of 2.3 degree. The corresponding figures provide for January a difference + 8.6oC, which indicates that the sea was able to transfer a lot of heat into the air. However, during February-April 1919, the temperatures were well below the average (ca. -6oC), with a large ice-cover far out into the sea. But that did not affect the significant warming that had started a few months earlier.

CONCLUSION:

Exactly 100 years ago the sea water temperatures at Spitsbergen suddenly reached unusual high values. The connection to the naval war activities in the North Sea and Eastern North Atlantic is obvious. The warming increased over the next two decades and lasted until 1939 until World War II commenced. Two world wars changed climate, but science is neither able nor willing to raise the issue.

 

2nd cold snap in Europe mid-March 2018

Europe gets a cold spring due to churning the sea

Posted: 17th  March 2018

Addendum 1st April 2018 + 4 Fig as it follows:

This post was about the presumed human impact on sea temperature condition in the North Sea and Baltic (below – 17.March). The status by the end of March indicates a serious connection. Shipping, fishery and off-shore windfarms should not be ignored when looking for reasons causing the late winter conditions as reported (Bloomberg):

“The chilly weather that has plagued much of Europe this month will continue into the start of April, but over time will ease,” said Tyler Roys, a meteorologist at AccuWeather Inc. “By the end of the month it seems temperatures will become more seasonable for the northern third of Europe.”

The biggest deviations from normal will be the U.K. and Scandinavia, particularly southern Norway, while warmer conditions are expected in the Balkans and Turkey, according to Rebecca Fuller, a meteorologist at Radiant Solutions.

The temperature in Norway is seen at 1.8 Celsius (35 Fahrenheit) next week, compared with a 10-year average of 3.6 Celsius according to Weather Co.

Seasonal sea ice in the Baltic remained substantial below average. The peak was around the 10th March 2018, and is far away from the mean by the end of March (see the two ice charts). The DMI-SST Anomaly charts indicated for some time sub-sea-surface temperature from Bornholm to Scotland, consistent until today (see Fig). It seems time to take the human impact on sea water condition in Northern Europe serious.

[Addendum 24th March 2018 with 4 Figures]:

EUROPE Weather at Eastern – 1st April 2018 ff;  

More cold snaps approach from Siberia to mark the third and fourth return of the Beast from the East throughout Northern Europe up to the Atlantic. (HERE & HERE)  The serious contribution by all kind of ocean uses, shipping, offshore windfarms, fishery and so on is nowhere discussed or mentioned. See for example the Fig. about SST (sea surface temperature) in the North Sea and Western Baltic. Otherwise the Atlantic-SST are above average (see Fig.) What do offshore wind farms contribute the weather situation in April? A convincing answer would be a big bon for understanding climate, and how effective human activities at sea are to contribute to weather making and climate change.

 

FIRST POST  –  Posted: 17th  March 2018

Cold Siberian air arrive again. Only three weeks ago our post “Coldest spring weather since 2010 expected” discussed the sudden cold snap in Europe, because it is highly possible that human activities at sea, contribute to unexpected low temperatures influx from the Far-East. The explanation is simple: As soon as the reginal seas across Europe have lost too much of their heat stored during the summer season, cold air from Siberian can reach Europe and establish reign for days or weeks, respectively delay the arrival of spring. 

The last few days weather development support the thesis. Europe’s spring, respectively the months April, May and June are likely to show sub-temperature, as indicated in Fig. 1. Already forthcoming April the forecast indicates a significant negative anomaly (Fig. 2), with the North Sea and Baltics in focus. Why does it happen exactly in the regions? The explanation presumably stems from the various anthropogenic activities at sea. Lengthy discussed HERE. 

We now briefly record the current cold snap, as mentioned by weather.com (15/17 March 2018, shortened):

The Cold’s Arrival – The 2nd Beast from the East.

Temperature drops of 10 degrees Celsius can be expected as the cold air arrives Friday into the weekend. “Sunday will be the coldest day with maximum temperatures struggling to lift above freezing across the U.K., Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, northern France and southern Scandinavia.” Wind chill values may dip as low as minus 10 degrees Celsius – equivalent to the mid-teens Fahrenheit. 

With cold air blowing over the North Sea and an upper-level pocket of cold air, areas of snow showers and squalls are once again a likelihood to the U.K, Ireland, northern France and southern Scandinavia this weekend.

Difference from the cold snap three weeks ago.

The cold air will work its way south and west into most of the rest of Europe later in the weekend (17/18 March). It is in this part of Europe where the cold will persist the longest well into the week of March 19-23. This pattern will also generate areas of snow that will persist through much of that week in southern, central and eastern Europe. Some of that snow will be moderate to heavy, not simply in the Alps, but also from parts of Germany and Poland to the Ukraine.

The phrase “Beast from the East” refers to the fact this cold air arrives on strong winds blowing east-to-west from Scandinavia over the North Sea into the British Isles and western Europe.

Further Figures; (left) Condition today (17 March); Jetstrea- – 17 March 2018; (right) Forecast 24th March 2018

 

Coldest spring weather since 2010 expected

Europe’s late winter – A case off-shore
 activities contributed.

Posted: 26th February 2018

Coldest spring weather since 2010 expected before first week of March, shouts out of the news media. Read what is at stake (below), but keep in mind that the current winter in Northern Europe had been extremely mild, to which shipping and the huge off-shore windfarms in the North- and Baltic Sea may have considerably contributed. The matter was thoroughly discussed in a paper-2016, and for example HERE-PDF. Any coffee stirred for too long gets cold. As soon as the reginal seas across Europe have lost too much of their heat stored during the summer season, cold air from Siberian can reach Europe and establish reign for days or weeks, respectively delay the arrival of spring.  Continue with recent post

According the current forecast the cold spell shall only last until early March. WE will make up-dates if the predictions proves wrong.

Excerpts from the news-press

(E.g.; Source: www.connexionfrance.com; www.euronews.com, www.ndtv.com, etc)

Intensely cold winds coming to Europe from Siberia. The blast of cold weather that has hit the country is expected to intensify tomorrow and into next week, with temperatures feeling as low as -18°C, alongside wind gusts of up to 80 kph. Dubbed the “Moscow-Paris” phenomenon, the “cold wave” is the result of intensely cold winds coming to Europe from Siberia. It is expected to settle over France from today, and into next week (February 25 to March 4). Most of Western Europe will be affected by temperatures of -6°C to -10°C from Monday to Wednesday. And even Mediterranean areas will feel the chill, with temperatures of between 0°C and -4°C.

Why is it unusually cold in certain parts of Europe? High pressure over the North Sea heading northeast into Scandinavia is responsible for the cold wave, according to Bowles. The meteorologist explained that the high pressure was drawing cold air from Siberia and pushing it southwest, “much further south and west than it usually does.” That’s how very cold air is reaching parts of Germany, France, and the UK. The longer this pattern lingers, the colder it will get, added Bowles. For the meteorologist, this kind of weather phenomenon is “unusual but not record-breaking”.

Siberian express’ ;  Britain’s weather service, the Met Office, forecast that northern England would have 10 centimetres (four inches) of snow over the next three days, amid temperatures that could feel as cold as minus 15 Celsius. It also warned of widespread travel disruption, saying: “Snow showers, already affecting eastern parts of England early on Monday, are expected to become more persistent and more widespread through Monday afternoon and evening.”  Russia itself was not spared, with its meteorological service warning of “abnormally cold” temperatures until Wednesday and temperatures in the Moscow region expected to fall to minus 24 Celsius on Sunday night, and minus 35 Celsius in the centre of the country. Frigid temperatures are also forecast throughout Germany, with a low of minus 22 Celsius in some Alpine valleys in the southern state of Bavaria on Monday.

Cold snap sees Arctic warmer than Europe  Warmth was coming into the Arctic both up from the Atlantic and through the Bering Strait, driving and cold air south. Around the entire Arctic region, temperatures are now about 20C above normal, at minus 8C, according to DMI calculations. To the south, a rare snow storm hit Rome on Monday

Reporting on winter 1939/40 by The New York Times

Reporting on weather/climate changes then and today.

Post 06 February 2018 by Dr. Arnd Bernaerts

About reporting weather news The New York Times (NYT) is unbeatable, at least in some cases. Nowadays it is about global climate change. Consider for example the recent paper concerning: “Climate Change Is Complex. We’ve Got Answers to Your Questions”, by JUSTIN GILLIS Illustrations by JON HAN (Q&A, 2016). Or remember the blog:  NYT- Dot Earth, excellently run by Andrew C. Revkin for nine years until 2016. All texts show a great commitment, thoroughness, and the willingness to get it right. The claim is (Q&A Part 1, No 5): “The warming is extremely rapid on the geologic time scale, and no other factor can explain it as well as human emissions of greenhouse gases.”  Whether that this assessment eventually hold the ground is still subject of debate. When considering another NYT reporting period on exceptional extreme weather situations, doubts are eminent that “human emissions of greenhouse gases” does not cover the climate change debate sufficiently.

The NYT received the Pulitzer Prize 1941 concerning its foreign news report. Indeed the in-depth coverage of war activities and weather condition since September 1939 is outstanding. The amount of information is breath taking. That includes weather, which was at numerous location never observe or a record over a 200 years period.

After an extreme unusual December 1939, a record cold January 1940 followed (see HERE & HERE) It was not the end of unusual frost and snowfall. Europe remained governed by General Frost during the following month February, as illustrated by Fig. 2,4,5,6,8,9, and a few examples selected from NYT reports:

__ February 13; Amsterdam . Europe suffered tonight in the paralyzing grip of the bitterest cold in more than 100 years. (NYT, Feb. 14, 1940)
__ February 13; Copenhagen . The temperature has dropped to 13 degrees below zero Fahrenheit (-25°C). (NYT, Feb. 14, 1940).
__ February 13; Baltic countries. In Estonia , Latvia and Lithuania more than 10,000 persons suffered severe frostbite. At least five persons froze to death in the three Baltic countries, where temperatures reached 54 degrees below zero Fahrenheit (- 47.7°C) recently for the first time in 160 years (NYT, Feb. 14, 1940).
__ February 20, 1940; In Sweden all cold records were broken in the last twenty-four hours with 32 degrees below zero Fahrenheit (-35.5°C), the coldest since 1805. The previous record in Stockholm was 22 F degrees below zero. Copenhagen tonight 2 degrees above zero Fahrenheit. (NYT, Feb. 21, 1940).

Should these facts neglected when discussing climate change today? That is unacceptable. It is foremost the duty of science to take the matter serious, but an ambitious newspaper should be able to ask questions about the causes of such events. Science would quickly face problems regarding the greenhouse theory. One would pretty soon realize that science is working with confusing explanations and even a serous newspaper as the NYT accepts that unquestioned. Let’s have a look at the Q&A, Part 1-No.1, which reads as it follows:  

“ 1. Climate change? Global warming? What do we call it?

Both are accurate, but they mean different things.
You can think of global warming as one type of climate change. The broader term covers changes beyond warmer temperatures, such as shifting rainfall patterns.
President Trump has claimed that scientists stopped referring to global warming and started calling it climate change because “the weather has been so cold” in winter. But the claim is false. Scientists have used both terms for decades.”

 Nothing in this respect is accurate. At best ‘climate’ is statistic. If science defines ‘climate’ as average weather, ‘climate’ is nothing else as statistic. Moreover weather can be typified into hundred and more items. But science has avoided to come up saying what weather is. The American Meteorology Society offers that weather is “The state of the atmosphere, mainly with respect to its effects upon life and human activities” (More HERE). Try to make an “average” of that and at best you have fake news. The only relevant weather criterion in so far is the rise and fall of air temperature, on a local, regional or global scale. The latter may be called global warming.  

That is all very sad. Changes of weather conditions will continue to occur, and human kind does not understand sufficiently why it happens, how to prevent what man is contributing, and take action to minimize threatening the global natural system anthropogenic. It is shocking that President Donald Trump is questioning the use of the term ‘climate change’ by science (Q&A, Part 1-No.1), and since long challenge “that scientists are engaged in a worldwide hoax to fool the public” (Q&A, Part 1-No.6).Understanding the impact of human ocean uses in all its facets inclusive naval warfare during the World War could prove that Mr. Trump is right. He is hardly the man to understand how weather works, but certainly would claim that he is a genius, because he has said so ever since. A further political disaster.   

 

Winter 2017/18 – Record cold regions – Not in Europe –

What cooled Europe winter 1939/40 – Naval War  

Post 28th January 2018

First there had been the extreme cold wave east of the Rocky Mountains around New Year’s Day few weeks ago. “This cold wave was exceptional,” said Gabe Vecchi, a geoscientist at Princeton University, “for being 7°F to 11°F colder than the coldest two weeks in recent decades and for occurring so early in the season, especially in light of the decrease in intensity and frequency of cold waves over the past century.” A study by the World Weather Attribution group analyzed weather records dating back to 1880 and found this cold weather snap that hit a swath of the U.S. from Maine to Minnesota tends to happen once every 250 years”  (Source).

Also Siberia is much colder than normal. The average temperature has run below the norm at 8-16 degrees, meanwhile stretching westwards to the Balkan with temperature dropping below -20°C in Central Ukraine, in Romania below -17°C, and in Bulgaria below -13°C (Details at IceAge). Some time ago US-TODAY reported  (16.Jan.2018) that in Oymyakon/Russia temperature sank to a mind-numbing (and body-numbing) 88F below zero (-66.7C) which  isn’t far from minus 89.9F, the coldest-ever officially recorded for a permanently inhabited settlement anywhere in the world and the frostiest in the Northern Hemisphere. So far – so cold, and is remotely a situation

somewhat similar situation as in winter 1939/40 as outline in our previous post HERE. But the difference was Europe (Fig. 2a / 2b). Than it was the coldest winter for more than 100 years und in some location diminishes other records; in Berlin the coldest January since 1709 (Fig. 3), in Moscow ever.    

In winter 1939/40 an Arctic cold also reached the United Kingdom in January 1940. According “harrogateadvertiser”   was the coldest – at some places -since 1838 and the paralysis of life was virtually complete by the development of an exceptional ice storm on January 28. Previously, the U.K. had been overrun by a Siberian current of air battling against the North Atlantic – the combative mood of the weather in keeping with Hitler’s European advances. January 20 to 21 had been the coldest night of the 20th century up till that time, with temperatures widely down to 0 F (-18 C) with deep snow cover the length and breadth of Britain. On the night of the 23rd, a minimum of -23.3C was recorded in Wales at Rhaydaer(Powys) a record low for that date. The month was the coldest month in England (-1.4C) since February 1895. The most alerting aspect is that the cold was man-made. Only 150 days of war theatre into WWII was needed to impel Europe into ice-age condition.

But climate research shows no interest to understand why. Neither the Met-Office is able to explain the extraordinary event, although January 1940 offered more than low temperatures, but will always be remembered for the Snowstorm and Ice-storm that struck the UK.

 

Other lows include -20°C at Canterbury, Welshpool, Hereford and Newport in Shropshire. The Thames was frozen for 8 miles between Teddington and Sunbury and ice covered stretches of the Mersey, Humber and Severn. The sea froze at Bognor Regis and Folkestone and Southampton harbours were iced over. The Grand Union Canal was completely frozen over between Birmingham and London. Central London was below freezing for a week and there was skating on the Serpentine on 6″ ice. (MORE)
However January 1940 will always be remembered for the Snowstorm and Ice storm that struck the UK.
 

SNOWSTORM On the 26th, two occlusions were moving up from the SW engaged the cold air over the UK. At the same time, the anticyclone over Scandinavia was intensifying blocking the fronts from pushing through the UK, they became stationary over Wales and SW England. This resulted in a great snowstorm across many northern and eastern areas. Vast areas of northern England reported between 30-60cm of level snow, the higher parts in excess of 60cm+. The snowfall lasted to the 29th of January

 

ICESTORM Ice storms are rare in the UK, but the worst incident was in January 1940, It was the coldest winter for a century when, on January 27, a savage ice storm swept much of southern Britain. The landscape seemed to be encased in glass, trees looked like frozen waterfalls, and the ice weighed them down until they broke and smashed to the ground. (The Times, 2007). Precipitations fell as freezing rain, which is reckoned to be the severest that has struck the UK in recorded history. The duration of the storm was remarkable lasting up to 48 hours in places. The effect of this prolonged ice storm was severe and damaging.

 Summary

The climatic down-fall in the U.K. and Europe in winter 1939/40 is mainly, at least partly, the result of an intensive war at sea. Due to huge naval activities the reginal seas lost too much of their summer heat too early. The cold from the East cold easily reach Great Britain an exceptional ice storm. Now, in winter 2017/18 the opposite occurs. Various activities at sea, including the installation of huge off-shore wind farms ensure that the sea surface supplies a steady heat flow to the atmosphere, and is kept free from freezing. A better understanding and recognition of the physical abilities of regional sea and wider ocean areas would greatly help understanding climate change issues.

Added: 15 Feb. 2018 Added: 15 Feb. 2018