- Natural fluctuations are a component of the climatic system (Johannessen
et al., 2004);
- Natural variability is the most likely cause (Bengtsson, et al., 2004);
- Sun has partly caused the warming (Daly, 2004);
- The 1930s warm period did not coincide with a positive phase of the NAO
(North Atlantic Oscillation) (Polyakov et al., 2004).
The latest IPCC’s Summary for Policymakers (IPCC 2007) paid little attention
to the previous statements and summarised the ‘arctic warming’ as
Average Arctic temperatures increased at almost twice the global average rate
in the past 100 years. Arctic temperatures have high decadal variability, and
a warm period was also observed from 1925 to 1945.
One century has passed since arctic warming started in the late 1910s, but
science is still unable to give a consistent explanation of the warming causes
and origins. This investigation attempts to offer clues and explanations about
what caused the arctic warming at the beginning of the last century. However,
as a Conference paper, it is actually only a brief summary of a more detailed
work, which is fully accessible at http://www.arctic-warming.com.
It will be demonstrated that the location and the timing of the first observed
arctic warming in the early 20th Century could be identified with high precision.
We will prove that the warming phenomenon started at Spitsbergen and, even
more that it started within a very short time frame of only a few months, in
1918. Therefore, the most dramatic air temperature increase was recorded in
the winter of 1918/19 and lasted in force only until ca. 1922. Over a very
short period of time, from the winter of 1915/16 to the winter of 1921/22,
winter temperatures had risen by about 10ºC, never coming back to pre
1918/19 level, but increasing at a lower level until ca. 1940.
A further highly significant aspect is the Spitsbergen location. On one hand,
a substantial part of the water masses reaching Spitsbergen have either passed
the West coast of Scotland or came from the North Sea, which might have had
dramatic consequences back in 1918. These water areas around Great Britain
had been under considerable constraint due to naval warfare during World War
I (WWI), whereby the ca. 2000 kilometre distance between the two locations
is not a significant one. Oceanic currents carried all the naval battleground
water northwards, in the Spitsbergen region, within only a few weeks or a couple
of months. Once the ‘composition’ of the battleground seawater
structure has changed, it remained so.
It is important for this investigation to mention that only the winter season
is covered: not only because of the fact that only winter temperature recorded
a dramatic increase, but because it covers a period during which the sun influence
is inexistent for many months, or its direct influence is negligible.
From this site
|Spitsbergen 1918—The big warming
-The Jump Get
|Seas under naval stress Naval warfare:
|Northern Mine Barrage
|A possible cause for the severe warming: