Timo Niroma’s Helsinki temperature analysis can teach a lesson

“Those who understand too little about climate, will be punished by life”

“Those who understand too little about climate, will be punished by life”[1] was a lesson two very bad guys experienced back in World War II. This thesis is not too difficult to prove with regard to the reckless Soviet Union in winter 1939/40, and Nazi-Germany in winter 1941/42. Their climatic skill was too insufficient to avoid a disaster. One lost more than hundred thousand soldiers the other lost the war.

We have chosen the Finish Capital Helsinki to explain the made allegation, because this location represents North-East Europe up to Moscow in climatologic terms, the city has a long temperature data series since 1829, and Timo Niroma analysed them with regard to global warming and the effect of solar variability[2]. The latter aspect can be skipped without hesitation because we will focus on the winter season when sunray is less relevant and the bad guys received their lesson. In the first case the Soviet Union ambushed Finland (1939/40), in the second case Nazi-Germany tried to conquer Russia by reaching Moscow before the end of year 1941. Both war parties suddenly faced the coldest winter environment since the end of Little Ice Age. While this has all been already explained in detail elsewhere[3], we summarize Nimora’s analysis.

  • After the very warm period 1934-1939, which was warmer than today or in a tie with 1999-2005, there were suddenly the amazingly cold years of 1940-1942. These war years where about 2 degrees colder than the two warm periods.
  • The actual temperatures of –13,7 degree in February 1940 and –15,9 in January 1942 were not broken as records from 1829 until the 1980s.
  • Why did the first hot period (1934/39) end up suddenly in 1939 and a super cold three years began in 1940?

The question is, why was the Red Army not prepared for fighting a polar cold winter war on Finland’s soil, which they had started on 30th November 1939, and whey did the German Army repeated the Russian mistake and were not prepared for facing extreme arctic temperatures already in December 1941 that prevented them to reach Moscow before years end as anticipated, which proofed fatal for the whole adventure?

Actually, the Red Army had planned for a short war of few weeks to be finished and won in December 1939. Instead they very soon faced unusually harsh weather conditions which already turned into Ice Age conditions around the 20 th December 1939. The NYT reporter James Aldridge was present: “The cold numbs the brain in the Arctic hell, snow sweeps over the darkened wastes, the winds howl and the temperature is 30 degrees below zero Fahrenheit”[4] (Details: Here). At this time the earlier mentioned very warm period from 1934-1940 had defiantly ended. The question again is: Why?

The unusual weather conditions commenced with WW II on 1 st September 1939 that brought huge armadas out to sea. From now on many thousand naval and other ships navigated the seas day and night. Many thousand military encounters took place day and night. The North and Baltic Sea are not used to such stress, usually serving as central heating for Northern Europe during winter releasing their summer heat only gradually. In autumn 1939 naval activities squeezed the heat out of the seas more quickly, freeing the way for polar air from the high North and Northeast. As meteorology was not aware of such link, the ambushing Russian and German Armies had not been warned to prevent activities that would turn the two seas ‘up-site-down’, at least during the early winter season. In retrospect we can only be happy that at least the German weather service was completely unaware about it than. With huge naval activities in the eastern part of the Baltic Sea during autumn 1941 Adolph Hitler sealed his and the German Army’s destiny. Fortunately. This all explained in detail in the ‘Booklet’ as presented on this site and corresponding reference, e.g. www.seaclimate.com.

In conclusion the information and analysis by Timo Niroma are most welcome, but further investigation in Northern Europe temperatures series should look more beyond data sets, and more to marine issues particularly if the sea is dramatically affected by uncommon events. During the winters 1939/40 to 1941/42 neither the sun, nor CO2 brought Arctic conditions to Europe. The North and Baltic Sea did.

Author: Arnd Bernaerts, Oct.2007

Footnotes

[1] Based on Michail Gorbatschov’s slogan: “Those who come too late, will be punished by life”

[2] Timo Niroma, (Year ?), “The Effect of Solar Variability on Climate Calculations and conclusions” Sunspots and Temperature in January and July: Helsinki temperatures for 159 years; http://www.kolumbus.fi/tilmari/clim.htm , http://www.kolumbus.fi/tilmari/globwarm.htm#19341992

[3] Arnd Bernaerts, “War Changes Climate”, 2005, Trafford, Canada; and other material: see the given links (right column).

[4] The New York Times, 25 December 1939. 30 degrees below zero Fahrenheit equals minus 34,4 ° Celsius