Europe gets a cold spring due to churning the sea
Posted: 17th March 2018
Addendum 1st April 2018 + 4 Fig as it follows:
This post was about the presumed human impact on sea temperature condition in the North Sea and Baltic (below – 17.March). The status by the end of March indicates a serious connection. Shipping, fishery and off-shore windfarms should not be ignored when looking for reasons causing the late winter conditions as reported (Bloomberg):
“The chilly weather that has plagued much of Europe this month will continue into the start of April, but over time will ease,” said Tyler Roys, a meteorologist at AccuWeather Inc. “By the end of the month it seems temperatures will become more seasonable for the northern third of Europe.”
The biggest deviations from normal will be the U.K. and Scandinavia, particularly southern Norway, while warmer conditions are expected in the Balkans and Turkey, according to Rebecca Fuller, a meteorologist at Radiant Solutions.
The temperature in Norway is seen at 1.8 Celsius (35 Fahrenheit) next week, compared with a 10-year average of 3.6 Celsius according to Weather Co.
Seasonal sea ice in the Baltic remained substantial below average. The peak was around the 10th March 2018, and is far away from the mean by the end of March (see the two ice charts). The DMI-SST Anomaly charts indicated for some time sub-sea-surface temperature from Bornholm to Scotland, consistent until today (see Fig). It seems time to take the human impact on sea water condition in Northern Europe serious.
[Addendum 24th March 2018 with 4 Figures]:
EUROPE Weather at Eastern – 1st April 2018 ff;
More cold snaps approach from Siberia to mark the third and fourth return of the Beast from the East throughout Northern Europe up to the Atlantic. (HERE & HERE) The serious contribution by all kind of ocean uses, shipping, offshore windfarms, fishery and so on is nowhere discussed or mentioned. See for example the Fig. about SST (sea surface temperature) in the North Sea and Western Baltic. Otherwise the Atlantic-SST are above average (see Fig.) What do offshore wind farms contribute the weather situation in April? A convincing answer would be a big bon for understanding climate, and how effective human activities at sea are to contribute to weather making and climate change.
Cold Siberian air arrive again. Only three weeks ago our post “Coldest spring weather since 2010 expected” discussed the sudden cold snap in Europe, because it is highly possible that human activities at sea, contribute to unexpected low temperatures influx from the Far-East. The explanation is simple: As soon as the reginal seas across Europe have lost too much of their heat stored during the summer season, cold air from Siberian can reach Europe and establish reign for days or weeks, respectively delay the arrival of spring.
The last few days weather development support the thesis. Europe’s spring, respectively the months April, May and June are likely to show sub-temperature, as indicated in Fig. 1. Already forthcoming April the forecast indicates a significant negative anomaly (Fig. 2), with the North Sea and Baltics in focus. Why does it happen exactly in the regions? The explanation presumably stems from the various anthropogenic activities at sea. Lengthy discussed HERE.
We now briefly record the current cold snap, as mentioned by weather.com (15/17 March 2018, shortened):
The Cold’s Arrival – The 2nd Beast from the East.
Temperature drops of 10 degrees Celsius can be expected as the cold air arrives Friday into the weekend. “Sunday will be the coldest day with maximum temperatures struggling to lift above freezing across the U.K., Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, northern France and southern Scandinavia.” Wind chill values may dip as low as minus 10 degrees Celsius – equivalent to the mid-teens Fahrenheit.
With cold air blowing over the North Sea and an upper-level pocket of cold air, areas of snow showers and squalls are once again a likelihood to the U.K, Ireland, northern France and southern Scandinavia this weekend.
Difference from the cold snap three weeks ago.
The cold air will work its way south and west into most of the rest of Europe later in the weekend (17/18 March). It is in this part of Europe where the cold will persist the longest well into the week of March 19-23. This pattern will also generate areas of snow that will persist through much of that week in southern, central and eastern Europe. Some of that snow will be moderate to heavy, not simply in the Alps, but also from parts of Germany and Poland to the Ukraine.
The phrase “Beast from the East” refers to the fact this cold air arrives on strong winds blowing east-to-west from Scandinavia over the North Sea into the British Isles and western Europe.
Further Figures; (left) Condition today (17 March); Jetstrea- – 17 March 2018; (right) Forecast 24th March 2018