A dramatic climate shift after WWI still not understood

Post 11th November, 2018

The ocean is still a widely uncharted terrain. Too big and too complex is the ocean to assess it in depth.  Now a recent paper by Laure Resplandy and colleagues claims that ocean temperatures are far more up than expected. The essay, published by NATURE received immediately wide attention, from many quarters quite critical, for example HERE.  Yesterday the issue was discussed by Kendra Pierre-Louis in the NYT (Int. Ed.; Nov/09/2018) – Fig. 1. [NYT online Oct.31]  One can only wonder how ocean matters are still discussed, much too narrowly.

On 11th November 1918 a devastating war in Europe ended 100 years ago. The casualties were enormous.  Giant land areas were destroyed. Although huge sea regions in Northern Europe had been turned-up-side-down by naval activities many times, the sea surface looked common and plain. Nobody cared. There was nil interest to consider how the war could have altered the sea structure down the sea bottom, and the sea currents from the Biscay to the Barents Sea and Arctic Ocean. That was necessary as any change of seawater temperature and in the structure of salinity, would inevitably have an impact on the weather and climate. Seawater temperature changed already dramatically since spring 1918.  In the summer of 1918 the seawater temperatures had already reached unusual values: +7ºC to +8ºC at the West coast of Spitsbergen (Details, sec. E; ).  Thereon the air temperature exploded since1919, lasting for two decades (Fig. 3 & 4).

The sudden rise of air temperatures were due to a change in the sea water structure. Fridtjof Nansen touring the Arctic with the ship FRAM from 1893 to 1896 (Fig.5), already observed that a cold surface layer weakened. Years later this was confirmed by Russian scholar:   

The branch of the North Atlantic Current which enters it by way of the edge of the continental shelf around Spitsbergen has evidently been increased in volume, and has introduced a body of warm water so great, that the surface layer of cold water which was 200 metres tick in Nansen’s time, has now been reduced to less than 100 metres in thickness.“ (Schokalsky, 1936) – Details Ch.8; E –

Presumably the extensive naval activities during WWI increased the process dramatically (Fig.6). It is acceptable that during the time of war any in depth research was difficult to organize, but the war ended 100 years ago, and nothing has happen. Over four war years man has contributed to change weather and climatic pattern and science is not interested to know.

This can only be called tragic. The dramatic climate shift after WWI could explain so much and increase the understanding of the ocean impact in climate matter and how easy mankind can interfere in the global common. The NYT article (Fig.1) only reflects problem of the climate science community, the lack of data from the oceans. “Scientists normally measure ocean temperatures using thermometers, but stitching together a global temperature record requires thermometers around the globe. Global temperature records were spotty before 2007, when an international consortium began a program, known as Argo, creating an international network of ocean-temperature-measuring instruments.”  But what are about 3000 Agro buoys in the vastness and depth, and the mean temperatures (+4°C) of the ocean. Hardly more than a drop on a hot stone.  Now the research claims that they “used a new approach that derived ocean temperatures by measuring the levels of carbon dioxide and oxygen in the atmosphere”.  That sounds venturous, but needs to be clarified otherwise (Reference above).

For sure, the Laure Resplandy paper would in no way contribute to understand the global warming from 1918 to 1939. At the end of WWI the carbon budget (CO2) was out of question. But the ocean in Norther Europe warmed dramatically and made the Northern Hemisphere warmer. In North America it lasted until the early 1930s, in Europe until WWII commenced, which support the temporary shift in warm and cold water-layer structure in the European section of the Arctic Ocean.

A full assessment here: http://www.arctic-heats-up.com/ 




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