Many believe in natural climate variability. 70 years ago the winter in the Skagerrak region was extreme cold. (see: Fig.; D/J/F 1940/41, Giss) Only few years later Hesselberg et al stated that many low temperatures all over Norway had been the coldest ever observed in January 19411, the by far lowest at all stations around the Skagerrak. An all time record was measured at Oslo/Blindern (-26°C), and Viborg/Denmark (–30°C). Is assuming a purely natural cause a mistake?
The 1930s had been the warmest since the Little Ice Age. That turned suddenly to the coldest winters in Europe in the moment World War II started in September 1939. The first war winter became the coldest in Northern Europe for more than 100 years. The third even succeeded the 1st war winter, particularly in Eastern Europe. Towards the end of this two winters naval activities run high in the North and Baltic Sea. That was quite different prior the winter 1940/41. The Baltic Sea had had a year without belligerent activities. But since early April 1940 the Germans sailed with huge naval forces northwards to conquer Norway. For the rest of the year the sea areas along Norway was a battle ground from the Skagerrak to Narvik. Uncountable naval activities penetrated the sea over considerable depths.
See Chapter 3, p. 45-48;
“Booklet on Naval War changes Climate”; or
Буклет “Флотскaя войнa изменяет Климат” at http://www.1okeah-1klimat.com/index.html
The cold could have happen only due to a lack of heat reserve in the sea area from Dover to Bergen. Presumably the Skagerrak has contributed as well. Further more, the southern coast of Norway the sea has a depths of up the 700 meters, with a temperature difference to the surface of more than 10°C in August (see Fig.2).
Any mixing up side down would cool the surface layer as well. Has this combination contributed to the record winter conditions in the countries around the Skagerrak (Fig.3)?
From a climatologically point of view, the event possibly marks a great failure of atmospheric science. Did naval activities in 1940 have anything to do with the cold center around the Skagerrak? If that would be proved one day, it would be shocking. Human activities moderated the winter 1940/41 seven decades ago, and science and the general public do not know. Man or ‘natural climate variability’ that is a great question.
Posted 05 November 2010
Different sea ice conditions: 1939/40 & 2009/10.
A matter of naval war?
Excerpt from Wikipedia, Feb.15, 2010:
“The winter of 2009–2010 in Europe has been unusually cold with atypical snowfalls in several parts of the Northern Hemisphere. In January 2010, the northern half of Europe experienced one of its coldest winters since 1981–1982. Starting on 16 December 2009 light snowfalls and weather warnings took place. A persistent weather pattern brought cold moist air from the north …. and saw many parts of Europe experiencing heavy snowfall and record low temperatures. “
From Admiral Danish Fleet Report 13/Feb./2010:
Kattegat: There are areas thin open drift ice, new ice and pancake ice overall in Kattegat. Along east facing coastlines and in sheltered bay and inlets there are close drift ice, new ice and fast ice up to about 30 cm thick. Belt sea the Sound and western Baltic: There are areas with close to open drift ice and fast ice up to about 50 cm thick.
COMMENT: The winter 2009/2010 is one of the coldest since WWII, but the sea ice conditions in the Baltic Sea and Kattegat are very different. The sea ice in winter 1939/40 was one of the most severe, and the first year after 1883 with the highest ice cover possible, while the current sea ice conditions are modest in comparison. What is the reason? Was naval war the cause in 1939/40?
Prepared and posted on 15th February 2010